1. High-frequency economic indicators show continued US economic strength despite sectoral weaknesses, supported by yield curve spreads and corporate profits; 2. Housing and real estate loans exhibit recessionary trends, while commodity prices and a weaker US dollar point to global economic softness; 3. Negative regional Fed services surveys contrast with resilient consumer spending, which remains critical for near-term stability.

1. The S&P 500 is nearing historical long-term channel highs, with 2025 potentially marking its third consecutive year of double-digit returns; 2. A surge in IPOs in 2025, significantly higher than 2024, raises questions about a possible market top; 3. Tight credit spreads and low Treasury yields pose challenges for fixed income, though Fed easing policies may offer short-term relief.

1. The S&P 500's forward 4-quarter earnings estimate rose slightly to $284.21, with a P/E ratio of 23.4x and an earnings yield of 4.26%; 2. The current bull market is described as more 'orderly' compared to the late 1990s, particularly in retail investor behavior; 3. Three Fed rate cuts in 2025 are expected to support continued gains in stocks and bonds.

1. Evidence of cooling consumer demand and a weakening jobs market supports expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts; 2. The Fed is projected to cut rates by 25 basis points starting in September 2025, followed by additional cuts in October, December, January, and March; 3. Despite market pricing in a 125bp easing cycle, the rate cuts will likely push short-term USD interest rates lower.

1. Despite weakening jobs and housing markets, U.S. equities remain near record highs, fueled by expectations of Fed rate cuts and AI optimism; 2. Traditional valuations indicate stocks are overpriced, while consumers face rising living costs, dwindling savings, record debt, student loan pressures, and declining confidence; 3. These factors signal severe consumer strain, posing risks to economic stability and market performance.

1. The author reiterates a buy recommendation for US index-tracking assets, citing strong market performance and rising expectations for interest rate cuts; 2. US stocks have outperformed gold since 2008, supported by earnings growth, low sovereign risk, and falling oil prices; 3. Despite risks like election cycles and high valuations, the S&P 500 target of 7,095 points reflects confidence in the US market's resilience and growth potential.

1. Nvidia (NVDA) will release Q2 earnings, with focus on AI chip demand and China market impact; 2. Key economic data includes revised Q2 GDP and July core PCE inflation gauge; 3. Investment analysis highlights undervalued AI plays like Alibaba (BABA) and Micron (MU) through The Data Driven Investor's portfolio.

1. Weak manufacturing PMIs and a declining Leading Economic Index signal an economic slowdown, potentially limiting Energy Transfer's volume growth; 2. Ethane export restrictions to China are deemed unlikely to significantly affect Energy Transfer; 3. The Lake Charles LNG export project shows strong economics with ~20% ROI, offering upside potential, while ET's valuation appears near fair value and technical indicators suggest weakening momentum against the SPX500.

1. The author argues the S&P 500's rally is unsustainable due to high valuations and economic risks like rising interest rates and tariffs. 2. Long-term Treasury yields above 4.5% could trigger a stock market reversal, favoring bonds. 3. Tariffs are criticized as a regressive tax and ineffective deficit solution, further pressuring growth.

1. The turbulence in the bond market likely activated the Trump Put and possibly the Fed Put; 2. The S&P500's Monday low is likely to hold until the labor market weakens; 3. The stock market is expected to remain volatile with upside risk until a clear indication of an imminent recession appears.

1. The S&P 500 managed to end a four-week losing streak with a slight increase. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady and Jerome Powell's comments on inflation were key factors. 2. FedEx, Micron Technology, and Nike reported their quarterly results, with FedEx cutting its annual revenue guidance for the third consecutive quarter. 3. The S&P 500 advanced +0.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added +0.2%.

1. Multiple drivers of uncertainty, including inflation, tariffs, and recession fears, have created a challenging environment for investors. 2. Despite the S&P 500's Y/Y earnings growth, it is down 3.5% YTD. 3. History suggests that stocks with strong fundamentals often lead recoveries after market pullbacks. 4. SA Quant's top 2025 stocks have reported positive earnings surprises, indicating excellent fundamentals and market leadership potential.

1. The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech are under close watch. 2. Economists expect 160,000 jobs to be added in February, with unemployment at 4.0%. 3. Concerns over the impact of recent policies and global trade uncertainty are highlighted.

1. Despite a 5% pullback from its all-time high, the S&P 500 remains up 1.2% this year, yet investor sentiment has plummeted. 2. The CNN Fear & Greed Index has plunged into Extreme Fear territory, and the percentage of bears has risen to a multi-year high. 3. Economic indicators show signs of strain with disappointing retail sales, a contracting service sector PMI, and a significant increase in the trade deficit.

1. The S&P 500 ended its two-week decline, closing up 1.5% from the previous Friday. 2. As of February 14th, the U.S. Treasury set the closing yield on the 10-year note at 4.47% and the 2-year note at 4.26%. 3. The S&P 500 is currently up 4.19% year-to-date.

1. The market experienced volatility with the 'fear gauge' rising as China's DeepSeek AI challenges Western AI models. 2. Despite early-week dips, indices recovered, with the Nasdaq up 2.66%, S&P 500 up 1.62%, and the Dow up 1.34%. 3. US Treasury yields remained stable, and the Fed held rates, while U.S. GDP growth was slower than expected and PCE rose 2.3% Q/Q.

1. The S&P 500 experienced a volatile week with a 1.0% loss from the previous Friday; 2. The U.S. Treasury set the closing yield on the 10-year note at 4.58% and the 2-year note at 4.22%; 3. Volatility was driven by major developments including the DeepSeek threat, the Federal Reserve's decision, big tech earnings, and renewed uncertainty.

1. The Fed's dovish rate cuts have led to rising manufacturing and services prices, with inflation expected to increase further over the next six months; 2. January's data indicates accelerating inflation, complicating the Fed's 2% inflation target; 3. The market expects only one rate cut in 2025, and Powell should push back on early rate cuts.

1. The stock market is a leading economic indicator, driven more by investor emotions than economic data; 2. Current levels of extreme bullish sentiment and distinct Elliott Wave patterns suggest a longer-term corrective pattern is underway; 3. Historical parallels, such as the 1968-74 stock market, indicate a significant market downturn is expected; 4. The recommended asset allocation is consistent with the expectation of a major correction, possibly ending in early 2026.

1. The market has struggled over the last two weeks due to rising bond yields and fears of inflation and tariffs. 2. The CPI report showed a 0.4% increase, with core CPI at 0.2%. 3. The decline in wages impacts the growth rate of PCE.